Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.016865 0.019096 0.021514 0.024330 0.027521 0.031025 0.035168
2025-08-24 0.013361 0.016434 0.020050 0.024623 0.030259 0.036984 0.045631
2025-08-31 0.011221 0.014604 0.018815 0.024450 0.031806 0.041098 0.053761
2025-09-07 0.010005 0.013638 0.018374 0.025012 0.034096 0.046125 0.063320
2025-09-14 0.008606 0.012207 0.017092 0.024217 0.034375 0.048382 0.069251
2025-09-21 0.007642 0.011233 0.016280 0.023909 0.035190 0.051323 0.076272
2025-09-28 0.006729 0.010215 0.015275 0.023178 0.035259 0.053121 0.081696
2025-10-05 0.006390 0.009999 0.015398 0.024092 0.037805 0.058721 0.093272
2025-10-12 0.006012 0.009677 0.015317 0.024660 0.039836 0.063668 0.104231
2025-10-19 0.005694 0.009412 0.015287 0.025285 0.041982 0.068935 0.116128
2025-10-26 0.005253 0.008904 0.014818 0.025141 0.042835 0.072148 0.124865
2025-11-02 0.004891 0.008490 0.014461 0.025139 0.043900 0.075765 0.134555
2025-11-09 0.004474 0.007953 0.013864 0.024691 0.044195 0.078151 0.142424
2025-11-16 0.004222 0.007682 0.013699 0.024988 0.045824 0.083000 0.155163
2025-11-23 0.003922 0.007296 0.013297 0.024812 0.046569 0.086303 0.165317
2025-11-30 0.003759 0.007147 0.013304 0.025382 0.048730 0.092353 0.181171
2025-12-07 0.003423 0.006643 0.012614 0.024576 0.048200 0.093301 0.187196
2025-12-14 0.003184 0.006302 0.012202 0.024262 0.048587 0.096010 0.196911
2025-12-21 0.002914 0.005880 0.011599 0.023521 0.048054 0.096859 0.202898
2025-12-28 0.002859 0.005880 0.011820 0.024448 0.050968 0.104813 0.224303
2026-01-04 0.002767 0.005799 0.011870 0.025025 0.053200 0.111546 0.243704
2026-01-11 0.002687 0.005733 0.011946 0.025660 0.055602 0.118814 0.264896
2026-01-18 0.002536 0.005505 0.011667 0.025514 0.056307 0.122530 0.278543